ITFLOWS Documents

In this section we include ITFLOWS main outputs as Journal Articles, Reports and Policy Papers. Please review this section periodically, since it will be constantly updated.

Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques

ITFLOWS researchers -from UAB and IfW- Konstantin Boss, Andre Groeger, Tobias Heidland, Finja Krueger and Conghan Zheng published a recent article on forecasting refugee flows to the Europen Union, using machine learning and high-dimensional data, including digital trace data from Google Trends.

Embedding Ethical Principles into AI Predictive Tools for Migration Management in Humanitarian Action

ITFLOWS researchers, Emma Teodoro and Andrea Guillén, both from the Institute of Law and Technology, Faculty of Law, (Autonomous University of Barcelona) recently published this paper to discuss about the operationalization of AI ethical principles in AI predictive tools for migration management in the humanitarian field.

Analyzing social media for measuring public attitudes toward controversies & their driving factors: a case study of migration

ITFLOWS researchers from FIZ Karlsruhe -Yiyi Chen, Harald Sack and Mehwish Alam- recently published an interesting paper on social media analysis: “Analyzing social media for measuring public attitudes toward controversies & their driving factors: a case study of migration”. This study aims at measuring the public attitudes toward migration in terms of sentiments and hate speech from a large number of tweets crawled on the decisive topic of migration. This study introduces a knowledge base (KB) of anonymized migration-related annotated tweets termed as MigrationsKB (MGKB).

The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance

ITFLOWS Researchers have published a study in the journal of Politics and Governance titled The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance. The paper, which was co-authored by ITFLOWS coordinator Dr Cristina Blasi Casagran, and ITFLOWS researchers Dr Colleen Boland, Dr Elena Sánchez-Montijano and Dr Eva Vilà Sanchez, provides an in-depth examination of selected existing predictive tools in the migration field and their impact on the governance of migratory flows. It focuses on a comparative qualitative examination of these tools’ scope, as well as how these characteristics link to their respective underlying migration theory, research question, or objective. It overviews how several organisations have developed tools to predict short- or longer-term migration patterns, or to assess and estimate migration uncertainties. The journal article is available open sources, and can be accessed at the following link:

European Muslim Youth and Gender (in)Equality Discourse

Colleen Boland, European Muslim Youth and Gender (in)Equality Discourse: Towards a More Critical Academic Inquiry. Social Sciences (2021)

Fundamental Rights Implications of InterconnectingMigration and Policing Databases in the EU

Cristina Blasi Casagran, Fundamental Rights Implications of Interconnecting Migration and Policing Databases in the EU, Human Rights Law Review, 2021;

Searching for a better life

Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords. Böhme M, Gröger A, Stöhr T (2020)

EUMigraTool Report #3

Third EMT Report, including latest developments and validations of the tool.

EUMigraTool Report #2

Second EMT Report, including latest developments and validations of the tool.

EUMigraTool Report #1

This is the first of several EUMigraTool reports with analysis of the most recent and relevant data and case studies from the tool to better inform the stakeholders.


Our colleagues Yiyi Chen, Harald Sack and Mehwish Alam from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute AIFB, Germany, recently published a study which focuses on developing a knowledge base of public attitudes towards migration and their driving forces. The study aims to provide better understanding of public attitudes towards migrations, possible reasons as to why these attitudes towards migrations are what they are, define a Knowledge Base (KB) which takes into account the semantics underlying this field of study, and finally publish this resource using FAIR principles (Wilkinson, 2016), i.e., make the resource Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable.

Ethics Handbook for the interviewing team

Dr Andrea Guillén (IDT) and Dr Emma Teodoro (UAB) have developed the ITFLOWS Ethics Handbook for the Interviewing Team. The handbook highlights the most relevant ethical issues which must be considered when conducting the interviews with migrants, refugees and asylum seekers during the ITFLOWS project, while also providing provides general ethical tips to address ethical concerns that may arise during the interviews.

Predicting international migratory movements using Google searches

André Gröger (UAB) and Tobias Heidland (IfW), members of ITFLOWS Project, and Marcus H. Böhme (German Federal Ministry of Finance) published a recent article on predicting migratory movements.

How Policy Decisions Affect Refugee Journeys in South Sudan

A Study using Automated Ensemble Simulations, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 23(1) 2, 2020. Suleimenova D. and Groen, D. (2020),

A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations

Suleimenova, D., Bell, D. & Groen, D. (2017). Sci Rep 7, 13377 (2017).


Entity-based Analytics of Migration Tweets

ITFLOWS Policy Brief #5

Migration Flow Prediction Tools and Asylum Policy Commitments in Alignment with Human Rights (BUL). Download the Policy Brief here.

ITFLOWS Policy Brief #4

Effective policies for the socio-economic integration of immigrants to the EU (UAB). Download the Policy Brief here.

ITFLOWS Policy Brief #3

Effective EU relocation policies in light of their Impacts Granting or penalising intra-EU mobility of asylum seekers and refugees? (CEPS). Download the Policy Brief here.

ITFLOWS Policy Brief #2

Root causes and factors contributing to possible tensions within the native population in their attitudes towards immigrants/refugees across European countries (EUI). Download the Policy Brief here.

ITFLOWS Policy Brief #1

Multidimensional drivers and fragmented journeys: the challenge for the EU of external partnerships on migration (IAI) Download the Policy Brief here.

ITFLOWS Policy Briefs – Executive Summary

ITFLOWS D8.1. is part of Work Package 8 that consists of five thematic Policy Briefs which contain policy solutions and recommendations for national authorities of the EU Member States, EU institutions, local governments, and international and non-governmental organisations. This Executive Summary includes an overview of each Policy Brief as it was submitted to the European … Continued

Generalised push-back practices in Europe

This brief, written by Madalina Moraru from Brunel University London, outlines the ways in which migrants are exposed to both ‘external’ and ‘internal’ push-backs by and between the Member States, while also underscoring the importance of safeguarding the physical safety and integrity of people seeking asylum. Download the Policy Brief here 

COVID-19 Implications for migrant care workers

The global pandemic COVID-19 has strained health care systems and social services, and caused an overall negative economic and social impact throughout Europe. Migrants en route to or residing in Europe are especially disadvantaged, not only due to border closures, but also because many were already in precarious situations with limited access to social protection … Continued

Report on the specifications and architecture of the EMT platform (D6.1)

Developments along the route. The role of transit countries in shaping mixed-migration flows to Europe (D3.1)

Overview report on relevant socio-economic situation in EU Member States (D4.3)

Report on Users Board participatory feedback (D7.1)

Reports on (1) The impact of family migration and family reunification of refugees and other migrants (2) Secondary movements within the European Union (D4.2)

Stakeholders Database & Report on planned engagement activities (D9.3)

Project Website & Project Branding (D9.1)

Data Management Plan (D1.1)

Report on the ITFLOWS regulatory model (D2.4)

Report on the ITFLOWS International and European Legal Frameworks on Migrants And Refugees and ITFLOWS Ethical Framework (D2.1)

Report on Human Rights, Ethical, Societal and Data protection risks assessments (D2.3)

Preliminary Exploitation Plan (D9.4)

Analysis of the role of contextual factors and dynamics of attitudes on social media, especially hate speech (D5.4)

Manual for Software Prototype of Social Media Analysis Tool to Monitor Public Attitudes towards Migration (D5.3)

Time sequence of forced displacement into neighbouring countries (D3.4)

Interim project report (D1.2)

Preliminary release of the EMT (D6.2)

Details of the big data used in predicting country instability and model description (D3.3)

Analysis on migration drivers and trajectories along the Eastern Mediterranean Route (South-Central Asia & Middle East); Central and Western Mediterranean Routes and the Western Africa Route (North, West, and the Horn of Africa), and the Atlantic Route (South-Central America) (D3.2)

Meta-Analysis of micro and macro level factors affecting attitudes to immigration (D5.1)

Communication and Dissemination Strategy (D9.2)

Gender Action Plan (D2.2)

Workshops with Policy Makers (MS6)

Within the context of Work Package (WP) 8, “Policy reach and recommendations,” the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) were assigned to co-organise a series of workshops with policy makers in Brussels.

Material for the five EU Policy Workshops (MS5)

Before the five workshops that will take place during the international conference entitled "Predicting Migration: Challenges, Opportunities and Policies", all attendees will receive material integrating and summarising the research findings emerging from the ITFLOWS Scientific Work Packages and translating them into a preliminary set of policy implications. These would be then presented and discussed with the policy workshop participants in order to get their feedback and verification in terms of priority and feasibility.

Release of the EMT (MS4)

Release of the EMT -first version- in line with D6.2 (Preliminary release of the EMT) submitted to the EC on 28 February 2022.

Qualitative study of drivers and trajectories of mixed migration towards the EU (MS3)

This paper sets out the conceptual and analytical framework guiding the qualitative strand of research to be carried out within ITFLOWS project’s Work Package 3, which focuses on the study of drivers and trajectories of mixed migration towards the EU.

Workshop on the EMT (MS2)

On 16 September 2021, the Workshop on the EUMigraTool took place -virtually- with more than 40 participants including ITFLOWS researchers, members of the Users Board (UB) and external guests

Establishment of the EAB and Steering Committee (MS1)

As marked in the Grant Agreement, the Steering Committee and the Expert Advisory Board (EAB) were voted during the Kick-off Meeting (24/25 September 2020).

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